Twenty-five years from now when the sun sets behind Mount Rainier beneath a smoggy atmosphere, the population of our region may have multiplied, swelling as people flock to one of the most desirable regions in the country.
Climate change has altered the ozone of the planet forever. The world will likely feel the effects of climate change for centuries to come.
In the future, the now damp Pacific Northwest may have an environmental advantage due to the abundance of water reserves and a relatively mild climate. Climate change will bring an increase in weather-related storms, but tornadoes and hurricanes form only on warmer surfaces, not on the Northwest’s less-than 50 degrees Fahrenheit ocean water.
Climate change will not affect migration for at least 20 to 25 years according to Lara Whitely Binder, outreach and adaptation specialist for the UW Climate Impacts Group.
Binder said climate change will be added to the list of reasons why people relocate in the future. She also listed economic opportunities, job opportunities, and social connections as the top reasons for people to migrate today.
The critical question is just how much of a factor climate change may be 20 years from now in motivating people to migrate to a more livable region.
Alisa Saperstein, a graduate student in the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, wrote a thesis paper hypothesizing about the future of the region called “Climate Change, Migration, And The Puget Sound Region.”
“More recent research has been focused on developing better methods for estimating the magnitude and character of likely future migration, accounting for climate change,” Saperstein said.
Politics will likely influence the migration levels to the Pacific Northwest due to legal migration quotas and demographics, according to Binder. At this point in time there is no “climate refugee” status anywhere in the world, but this might change as climate change becomes a more pressing issue.
National publications like The New York Times and The New Yorker have reported on Seattle or the Pacific Northwest’s distinguishing characteristics in relation to climate change. The New Yorker predicted a devastating earthquake will destroy Seattle, along with everything west of Interstate 5, in a highly provocative article last spring. Due to our position in the Ring of Fire, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions may be the most destructive natural events here, though they are not a result of climate change.
“[We] still have a lot to be learned on this topic,” Binder said, though she doesn’t see climate-induced migration to be a pressing matter for at least the next 20 years.
Reach contributing writer Sarah Blue at development@dailyuw.com. Twitter: @BlueSarah5
